Another looming example of “Two Ontarios”?
Retired. Now engaged in passenger rail advocacy for southwestern Ontario
A review of VIA Rail’s current business plan reveals a very ominous statement: "Due to age and condition of the existing fleet, with no capital investments, VIA Rail will not be in a position to offer the current passenger service levels by 2020". It could be federal arm-twisting pessimism, but service interruptions, resulting from equipment obsolescence, continue to erode VIA’s service reliability while driving up its operating costs.
The federal government is currently reviewing VIA’s request for $1.25 billion to renew its aged corridor fleet of locomotives and coaches but granting of such funds, while patently obvious to VIA and its customers, will not be straightforward. Count on political apathy, alternative transportation technology delusion and challenges by airlines, road builders, bus companies and others who will cry “unfair subsidy” in a concerted effort to let VIA rust into oblivion.
If VIA pulls out of southwestern Ontario due to lack of serviceable equipment, Metrolinx, operator of well-equipped GO Transit, has no existing mandate to bring passenger trains west of Aldershot or Kitchener and is very unlikely to step-in. Even more alarming is that there are no signs that the province and federal government are even discussing the matter. Attempts at constructive engagement with government by rail-served municipalities in the region have been polite but dismissive. Doesn’t this infer willful blindness?
As far as the province is concerned, personal mobility in southwestern Ontario will likely revert to autonomous and electric vehicles and buses, should passenger rail services cease. The City of Stratford, however, sees things very differently. It recently stated its economy and prosperity will be significantly constrained by current provincial policy on intercity and regional public transportation. No doubt other communities have drawn the same conclusion. It implies that new automotive technologies are not seen as the catch-all solution the province is touting.
The issue of public transportation subsidies is not quite as clear cut as many would claim. In a recent report, the C.D. Howe Institute, a highly-respected think-tank, calculated that public highways in Canada currently require a 30% taxpayer subsidy. In other words, the money highway users pay in license fees, fuel and carbon taxes only pays 70% of the cost of construction and ongoing maintenance. Surprised? So, what happens when provincial and federal fuel tax revenues decline rapidly as hybrid and electric vehicles become more popular? It’s quite possible that highway subsidy levels could increase to around 50% which is similar to that for a properly equipped and operated intercity passenger rail service.
The highway funding shortfall would need to come from universal road tolls, allocating money from the province’s cap and trade fiasco or perhaps covert redirection of money from other federal, provincial and municipal programs or by adding more debt. Add in the very substantial, publicly-funded costs in the form of transitional grants and loans to the auto sector, subsidies for charging stations, scandal-ridden, taxpayer-funded rebates for new electric vehicle purchases and congestion costs approaching $6.5 billion in the GTHA and it’s clear that the old adage of highway “investment” versus public transportation “subsidy” is now utter nonsense.
For economies and societies to remain functional, equitable, grow and prosper it’s critical to have the connectivity of a balanced public transportation strategy including the correct combination of highway, passenger rail and air modes. Most other G7 nations have already figured this out but Canadian politics, special-interests and myopia usually get in the way of astute, widely beneficial mobility investments. This seriously detracts from our national competitiveness.
Many travellers will be utterly stymied if passenger train services in southwestern Ontario deteriorate any further or cease altogether. Riding clapped-out rail equipment is better than nothing. But the constant uncertainty would make people even more angry and frustrated. And communities trying to adjust to new economic realities would be hit particularly hard.
Little wonder that the public’s trust of politicians and senior government is falling off the cliff. Recently, during a visit to Germany, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reminded E.U. members that a growing middle-class and maximum opportunity for upward social mobility are essential for economic and political stability and shared prosperity. Since reliable, accessible and affordable travel options are part and parcel of this, perhaps he should give a copy of his talk to provincial and federal transportation ministers and their policy teams. It would be a powerful reminder that they work for all Canadians and not just the favoured few.
